Newsom California Recall Vote Locked In A Virtual Dead Heat, According To New Poll; Governor In Trouble With Latino Voters

A new statewide poll of 1,000 registered voters shows a virtual dead heat between Californians who want to see Governor Gavin Newsom recalled and those who don’t.

The Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll, conducted July 30-August 1, 2021, found 46% of respondents in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% of voters against his recall. Those numbers are within the poll’s 3% margin of error, making the results a virtual — if not literal — dead heat. Six percent of voters were undecided.

Support for recalling the once-popular governor, who crushed Republican challenger John Cox in 2018 by a margin of 62%-38%, the largest share of the vote for any Democratic candidate for governor in state history, according to Ballotpedia.

More recently, the last Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll in mid July had Newsom ahead of the vote to recall 48% to 43% with 9% of voters undecided.

Newsom has lost support from a majority of Latino voters, with 54% of those respondents said they would vote “Yes” on the recall. They are the only racial group responding in favor of the recall, with the majority of Black respondents and Asian respondents in favor of keeping Newsom.

Even more worrisome for the governor is that his support among Latinos is eroding. In a March poll from Probolsky Research, 44.5% of Latino voters planned to vote “Yes” and oust him. That’s compared to 41.4% of the group who indicated they would vote “No.” About 40% of the state’s population identifies as Hispanic or Latino, according to U.S. Census data.

Newsom barnstormed the state in the weeks after those March numbers came out, making frequent stops in the Central Valley, at Dodger Stadium — home to a fervent Latino fan base — and even at a vaccination clinic for farmworkers in the Coachella Valley.

One place Newsom has not lost support is among showbiz types. He kept the industry working throughout the pandemic, which was no small thing to studios and networks — and the California economy.

The Motion Picture Association donated $10,000 to Stop the Republican Recall in July, the committee set up to collect unlimited amounts to fight the effort to oust the governor. Also donating was MPA chairman Charles Rivkin, with a $5,000 contribution; Paramount Pictures, with $40,000; and, in the largest single donation of them all, Netflix’s Reed Hastings, who gave $3 million in May. Other individual donors have included Jon Feltheimer, Steven Spielberg, Dana Walden and many more.

In the newest poll, white respondents were split at 48% in favor of recalling Newsom and 49% in favor of keeping him.

The recall election day is set for Sept. 14, 2021. Voters will begin receiving their ballots later this month.

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