Covid Infection Rate Among Unvaccinated California Residents 522% Higher Than That Of Those Vaccinated

On July 4, the overall 7-day average of Covid cases per 100,000 was 4.6. Today, that number has risen to 23.2 per 100,000. The 7-day average of cases is considered a good measure of the rate of infection spread. And while the rise from an average of 4.6 per 100,000 to 23.2 per 100,000 is a 400% jump, the data was much, much higher for the unvaccinated.

In mid-July, the average case rate among unvaccinated Californians was 20.7 per 100,000 per day and the average case rate among vaccinated Californians was significantly lower at 3.5 per 100,000 per day. Put another way, the vast majority of new cases in the state are among the unvaccinated.

For the week of August 7, the average case rate among unvaccinated Californians was 51 per 100,000 per day. That’s comparable with the overall rate the state saw in late January. Meanwhile, the average case rate among vaccinated Californians is currently significantly lower at 8.2 per 100,000 per day. That means the infection rate among unvaccinated Californians rose 146% while the much lower rate of cases among vaccinated residents rose 134%.

One number that didn’t change between mid-July and early August: Case rates among unvaccinated Californians are still over 600% higher than those of the vaccinated. What’s more, more than 90% of the patients hospitalized with Covid in the state are unvaccinated.

The message in these numbers would seem to align with Governor Gavin Newsom’s drumbeat for the past month: “Just get vaccinated.” And vaccinations are on the rise.

State Health Officer Tomás Aragón reported on Wednesday that California administered 335,009 new first doses last week, a 24 percent increase compared to the previous two weeks. This is a 62% increase compared to the week of July 5-July 11.

The problem is, it hasn’t been enough.

Newsom and state officials have plead, cajoled and even bribed Californians to get jabbed for over a month. And for the first time since the winter surge, in mid-July there was progress. Vaccinations were up 16% according to the California Department of Public Health. That growth in vaccinations, however, was outstripped by the growth in cases, which were up over 35% in the same timeframe.

The state has a long way to go. In mid-July, just 62% of its eligible residents were fully vaccinated. When the portion of the state’s population that cannot get vaccinated — those under 12 — are factored in, the vaccination rate falls to just 54%.

Just under a month later, the percentage of eligible Californians fully vaccinated has risen to 64%. That’s a 3% comparative gain in one month.

Compare that to the 75% jump that test positivity rate has made — from 3.8% to 6.5% — or to the 400% jump that average cases per 100,000 have seen in roughly the same time period, and the size of the mountain the state has to climb becomes clear.

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